As Aruba approaches its parliamentary election on December 6, 2024, the nation stands at a crossroads, with critical decisions ahead that will shape its political and social future. Recognizing the importance of informed dialogue during this pivotal time, Lovely Data is proud to present a comprehensive report aimed at fostering transparent, constructive, and data-driven discussions.
What Does the Report Cover?
This report is a deep exploration of the factors shaping Aruba’s electoral landscape, combining historical analysis, survey findings, and projections to provide a multi-faceted perspective.
1️⃣ Background: Context is Key
Aruba’s rich electoral history provides a foundation for understanding current trends. The report delves into historical voting patterns, seat allocations, and the role of restzetels (remainder seats) to offer context for 2024’s potential outcomes.
2️⃣ Survey Insights: Voices of the People
To capture the sentiments and priorities of Aruban voters, Lovely Data conducted an anonymous survey between October 11 and November 11, 2024.
What we asked:
How do voters view the performance of outgoing ministers?
What are their top priorities for the upcoming term?
How do they anticipate voting in the election?
How we ensured accuracy:
Respondent anonymity was prioritized.
Rigorous data cleaning and representativeness checks ensured the survey reflects the broader population.
3️⃣ Projections: Looking Ahead with Monte Carlo Simulations
Using advanced probabilistic modeling, the report forecasts potential seat allocations and the distribution of restzetels under different scenarios.
Key insights:
A high likelihood (>50%) of 5 or more restzetels being awarded in 2024.
A slim 0.7% chance of 7 restzetels—setting a potential new record!
These simulations highlight the dynamic interplay of voter behavior, party strategies, and electoral rules, offering a realistic look at how votes might translate into seats.
Why This Report Matters
Lovely Data is committed to transparency, integrity, and objectivity. Our goal is to empower citizens, stakeholders, and policymakers with actionable insights that are:
Unbiased: We have no political affiliations or agendas.
Grounded in Data: All findings are supported by rigorous statistical and historical analysis.
Focused on the Community: We prioritize the concerns and voices of the Aruban people.
In an era where misinformation can cloud public discourse, this report provides a clear, data-led perspective to help voters navigate the complexities of the 2024 election.
How We Protect Your Data
Lovely Data places a high value on confidentiality and data security.
All survey responses are anonymous, and no personally identifiable information is linked to individual responses.
Data collection and analysis are conducted in compliance with strict data protection regulations.
Get the Full Report
The full report, “Aruba Election 2024: Data-Led Insights and Projections,” is now available. It includes:
Detailed historical analyses.
Survey results presented in aggregate form.
Monte Carlo forecasts with visualizations and methodological notes.
📥 Download your copy
Join the Conversation
What do these insights mean for Aruba’s future? Share your thoughts, engage with the data, and be part of the dialogue shaping our democracy.
Together, let’s foster informed, constructive conversations about the future of Aruba’s democracy.
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